Thiruvananthapuram: A cyclonic circulation that will develop into a low pressure area over the southeastern Arabian Sea and intensify over the next two days is expected to critically influence the monsoon’s advance towards the Kerala coast, the Meteorological Department said on Monday from India. .
The meteorological department, however, did not give a tentative date for the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala.
“Westerly winds over the southern Arabian Sea continue to prevail up to 2.1 km above mean sea level. However, due to a cyclonic circulation over the southeastern Arabian Sea, the cloud mass is more organized and concentrated in the same area and there has been some cloud reduction off the coast of Kerala in the last 24 hours.
“In addition, under the influence of this cyclonic circulation, an area of low pressure is very likely to form over the same region during the next 24 hours. It is likely to move almost northward and intensify to a depression over southeastern and central eastern Arabian Sea over the next 48 hours,” the IMD said.
The formation and intensification of this system and its northward movement are likely to critically influence the advance of the southwest monsoon towards the Kerala coast, the IMD said.
The southwest monsoon normally sets over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. In mid-May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the monsoon could hit Kerala on June 4.
The southeast monsoon reached the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3, 2021, June 1, 2020, June 8, 2019, and May 29, 2018.
India is expected to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had previously said.
North West India is expected to see normal or below normal rainfall. The eastern and northeastern, central and southern parts of the peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall of 94 to 106 percent of the long-term average of 35 inches.
According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered “normal.” Rainfall below 90% of the long-term average is considered “poor,” 90-95% is “below normal,” 105-110% is “above normal,” and more than 100 percent is ‘excess’ precipitation.
Normal rainfall is critical to India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area dependent on it. It is also crucial for the replenishment of critical reservoirs for drinking water in addition to power generation throughout the country.
Rainfed agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of the country’s total food production, making it a crucial contributor to India’s food security and economic stability.
(With PTI inputs)
